According to our calculations based on the finalized October and partially announced GDP leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to contract by 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Based on the calculations we made with seasonally and calendar adjusted data, we expect GDP to increase by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, we anticipate a 7.1 percent decrease in public consumption expenditures, despite an 11.7 percent increase in special consumption tax compared to the previous quarter. When compared to the same quarter of the previous year, a high increase in imported consumption (21.3 percent) and a sharp decrease in credits (29.4 percent to 19 percent) are observed. We calculate an increase of 34.4 percent in SCT and 7 percent in public consumption expenditures.
According to the seasonally and calendar adjusted data, a 6.8 percent decline in investment goods imports in the fourth quarter of 2022 is remarkable.
attracts. While the retail sector stock level decreased by 3.3 percent, public investment expenditures increased by 5.4 percent. On an annual basis, production expectations for the last three months decreased by approximately 17 percent and the intermediate goods production index decreased by 8 percent. While the rate of increase in the retail sector’s stock levels decreased to approximately 4 percent, public investment expenditures decreased by more than 30 percent.
When we look at the other seasonal and calendar adjusted variables that we use in our GDP estimation, we observe an increase of 2.3 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, in the manufacturing industry production index and the demand for the service sector.
When compared to the same period of the previous year, the 7.4 percent decrease in electricity consumption draws attention. While the increase in retail sector price expectations continues, the 3.7 percent decrease in the manufacturing sector production index gives alarm.