BTC.Top CEO, Jiang Zhuoer, who is also one of the biggest Bitcoin whales in the market, looks at historical bear market cycles and says there are ‘months’ to the next BTC bull.
BTC.Top CEO points to March for the next Bitcoin bull
Zhuoer believes that Ethereum will start to rise before Bitcoin as the leader of the next bull market. In his January 9 tweets, he predicted that such a scenario would occur between March and May 2023. According to historical data, Bitcoin price crossed the bear market bottom in 2014 and 2018, respectively, from its previous high to the next halving date (2021-24). Zhuoer says that the bankruptcy crises that took place throughout 2022 are now over and the market is now ready to recover:
If Bitcoin’s price bottomed out in 2022 and the FTX event caused the price to hit $15,476, all three bear markets took similar times to bottom from the previous ATH. The 4-year halving that led to the 4-year cycle law still seems unbreakable. Now, based on market sentiment observations, we are in the last bear market dip. Events like DCG’s bankruptcy are already priced in and will no longer have a significant impact on the price.
Optimistic and pessimistic scenario
Zhuoer later says that if the current bear market and the 2018 bear market are similar, the Bitcoin price could be flat for ‘two more months’ before the next bull market begins. In an extreme bear situation, if there is a situation similar to the 2014 bear market, we may experience an ‘eight-month’ sideways movement at the bottom. According to Zhuoer, we will see Ethereum in the lead role in the bull market with only 2 months left according to historical data:
As the leader of the next bull market, I expect Ethereum (ETH) to start rising earlier than Bitcoin (BTC). This could happen between March and May 2023, ETH price will be permanently outside the current lower range.
Ethereum’s deflationary nature will reflect in its price
Zhuoer explained that Ethereum’s leading the next bull is due to its deflationary nature due to the implementation of the EIP1559 burn mechanism. He also pointed out that unlike Bitcoin, which fell to a new low after the FTX crash, Ethereum retained its dominance during the market chaos and continued to move sideways.
After the FTX crash, unlike Bitcoin, ETH did not fall to a new low, but remained at the bottom and moved sideways. Technically speaking, “The drop in ETH is not bigger than BTC like the last round of the bear market, but 80% compared to BTC and during the bull market the ETH/BTC ratio was kept as high as 0.07 to 0.08.” says.
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, the crypto market was under pressure due to the bankruptcy of FTX and then DCG and Genesis. Zhuoer also believes that the market is already pricing in the possibility of DCG going bankrupt. Based on historical data, BTC.Top CEO predicts that the next bull season could occur between March and May 2023.