Crypto markets have turned green after last week’s rally in equities continued. According to crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay, 4 altcoin projects may be ready to rise. Do the charts point to a rally in Bitcoin? What other altcoin projects are showing a positive chart structure?
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin finally rose above $ 17,000 after rising to $ 17,375 on January 12. Both bulls and bears watch the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 12. Risk assets could rise if pressure shows inflation cooling. But a negative surprise could attract strong sales. While some believe that a macro bottom could occur in Bitcoin, others remain skeptical. They draw a parallel between the current bear market and the bursting of the dot-com bubble. The US Federal Reserve stopped raising rates in May 2000, but the Nasdaq didn’t bottom for another two years. If the same scenario is played out with cryptocurrencies, the next bull run may not start right away.
However, the positive thing for the future of the crypto industry is that legacy financial companies continue to show interest in the space. Jez Mohideen, co-founder and CEO of Laser Digital, believes that the arrival of traditional companies could help regulate the cryptocurrency industry. Now it’s time for analysis…
First we look at the leading crypto Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin has been trading above the moving averages since Jan. This is the first indication that selling pressure may be easing. The price reached the overhead resistance at $17,061 on Jan. 6, but the bulls failed to reach this level. This shows that the bears have not given up yet.
A small plus in favor of the bulls is that they did not allow BTC to fall below the moving averages. If the price consolidates between the moving averages and $17,061 for a while, a break above the overhead resistance could increase the chances. If the bulls push the price above $17,061, the pair could rally to $18,388. Alternatively, if the price drops and dives below the moving averages, it indicates that BTC could be stuck between $17,061 and $16,256 for a few more days.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears held the $17,061 level, but failed to push the price below the 20 exponential moving average. This is a sign that buyers are not in a rush to exit as they expect a break above overhead resistance. The gradually rising 20-EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive zone suggest that buyers have a slight advantage. A break above $17,061 could mark the start of a fresh upward move in the near term. If the bears want to regain control, they will have to cut the price below the 50 simple-moving-average. BTC could then drop to $16,600 and stay in the range for a while.
Solana (SOL), the first altcoin with potential
Solana has underperformed in the last few months. However, price action over the past few days raises the possibility of a possible relief rally. It is too early to speculate whether the expected action is a dead cat bounce or the start of a sustained recovery. However, the setup may be of interest to short-term investors.
SOL has risen sharply from the December 29 low of $8. Buyers pushed the price above the 50-day SMA ($12.75) on Jan. 3 and have since managed to keep the SOL above that level. This shows that the bulls are trying to turn the moving averages into support. If the price rises above the overhead resistance of $15, the altcoin could accelerate towards $19. This level can again act as a barrier. However, if it is exceeded, the rally could extend to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $23.40, which is the retracement level. The bulls could lose control if the price drops and dips below the moving averages. Such a move will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price has retraced to the 20-EMA but the bulls bought this drop. This is a sign of a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. The bulls will attempt to extend the upward move by pushing the price above the $14.24 and $15 resistance area. On the other hand, the bears will try to push the price below the 20-EMA. If they can achieve this, the SOL could drop to the 50-SMA. This level can act as a support. However, if the bears pull the price below this, the drop could extend to $11.
The next altcoin project is Monero (XMR)
XMR broke out of the falling wedge on January 5 and buyers managed to keep the price above the breakout level for three days. This indicates a potential trend change.
The moving averages are up and the RSI is in the positive territory. This signals that buyers have the upper hand. There is minor resistance at $162 and then again at $167, but both these levels are likely to be surpassed. XMR could then reach the overhead resistance of $174. This level can act as a major obstacle. However, if the bulls manage to surpass it, XMR could rally to $200. Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops and dives below the moving averages, it suggests that a breakout from the wedge could be a bull trap. The downside momentum could recover with a break below $138.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are attempting to form a short-term double top pattern near $160. Sellers pulled the price below the 20-EMA, opening the door for a possible drop to the 50-SMA. The bulls can fiercely protect the moving averages. Because a break below this could turn the advantage in favor of the bears. If the price rises from the current level, it means that lower levels are attracting buyers. The altcoin could then rise to the overhead resistance of $160 once again. If this resistance scales, the upward move could continue.
Lido DAO (LDO) is also on the list
LDO broke out of the downtrend line on January 1 and made a sharp upward move. This indicates that the downtrend may have ended.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover showing that buyers hold the upper hand but overbought levels on the RSI indicate a short-term correction or consolidation. LDO could reach the overhead resistance at $1.85 if buyers don’t give up too much from the current level. This level can again act as a strong barrier. However, if the bulls surpass this, LDO could reach $2.30. The first sign of weakness will be a break below the 20-day EMA ($1.21). Such a move would suggest that bears are selling in rallies.
The 4-hour chart shows LDO starting a bullish trend. The upward sloping moving averages and the RSI in the overbought zone show that the bulls remain in control. There is a minor resistance at $1.71, but if this is surpassed, the rally could reach $1.85. The 20-EMA acted as strong support during the pullbacks. So this remains an important level to watch in the near term. If this support is broken, the pair could slide towards the 50-SMA.
Latest altcoin project Aave (AAVE)
Buyers have successfully defended the psychological support around $50 and are trying to establish a double bottom pattern. This is the reason for choosing AAVE.
A bounce of the strong support at $50 has reached the 50-day SMA ($58). Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory, giving buyers an advantage. If the bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA, it could rally to the AAVE downtrend line and then $67. A break and close above this level will complete a double bottom with a pattern target of $84. This bullish view is invalidated if the price declines and dips below the vital support at $50.
The bulls are attempting to push and sustain the price above the overhead overhead resistance near $58. If they can achieve this, the AAVE could rally towards the downtrend line. This level can act as a strong barrier. On the downside, however, if the bulls turn the $58 level to support, a break above the downtrend line might increase the chances. The first support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. If this level gives way, AAVE could slide to $54. This is an important level for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the short-term momentum in their favour.