Bitcoin bulls’ headaches are compounded by a raging US dollar as investors sit on the fence about which direction the market is going to take, according to crypto analyst William Suberg. The analyst states that Bitcoin (BTC) started a new week with a rare disappointment for the 4th quarter bull run and failed to break the previous support. The analyst states that after a promising weekend, Bitcoin was rejected twice at $60,000 and has since dropped below $57,000 as market momentum has waned.
The stakes are high. While some believe the sky-high Bitcoin price targets can still be met by the end of the month, others believe this bull market will last longer than before. Traders and analysts are gearing up for a frustrating but potentially interesting monthly close, with the possibility of a break from tradition and underselling in November appearing higher than ever. The analyst takes a look at five factors that could shape BTC price action in the last week of a uniquely stressful “Moonvember.” we too Cryptocoin. com, we have compiled the analyst’s evaluations for you.
Return to $60,000 resistance in Bitcoin (BTC)
For most of the weekend, the mood among analysts was simple: “It could have been worse. After hitting a five-week low of $55,650, BTC was able to retrace some of its losses and “gapped higher” to surge at $60,000 on Saturday. His analyst states that the market Bitcoin enjoyed a few short moments in the $60,000 range and once again turned the market upside down with a definitive rejection. On Monday, the analyst emphasizes that $57,000 is the focus, with clear momentum where once solid support turns into resistance.
Meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Pentoshi sums up the mood and reiterates his desire to retake $61,000 as support for continued uptrend.
November 2021 has yielded negative 6.5% returns for hodlers so far, making it one of three non-earning Novembers in Bitcoin history. The analyst reminds that in other years, transformative price action has been seen, not all of 2020, when BTC climbed almost 43% in November.
Sunday’s slide still managed to fill the latest CME futures gap created on Friday and has become a feature of spot price action again this month, according to the analyst. According to trader and analyst Crypto Ed, this is what had to happen in order to increase the probability of a new upturn in the new week. He made the following comments on Twitter on Sunday:
I expect another pillar to fill the CME tonight and back up from there in the coming days.
Uncanny similarities to bitcoin
Meanwhile, for all the frustration of a Bitcoin fix as soon as it’s unwelcome, not everyone is surprised or alarmed. Shorter ones can chart a completely different market health than longer ones, and that’s what commentators are trying to support this week for a persistent bullish argument, according to the analyst. Analyst TechDev posted the following on Sunday:
If in doubt, remove it. Compared to its performance in the two years after the block subsidy halving, Bitcoin remains on the right track. Almost 4 years apart. 2021 continues to lag behind 2017 by 5-8 days since July.
TechDev cites data showing that Bitcoin not only replicates 2017’s performance this year, but practically replicates the timeframes for each phase of the bull market. According to TechDev, if this continues, the predicted peak phase could also be seen.
A chart also shows that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) did copy-paste its 2017 performance, especially in November. Typically, the analyst notes that bull cycle tops are accompanied by an RSI of 90 or more, which is far from current data on the lower timeframes.
Funds increase for $60,000 rematch in Bitcoin (BTC)
The analyst underscores that despite losing the $60,000 battle, the process of trying to break out of the lower levels has had an undesirable effect on the derivatives markets, where traders have increased leverage once again.
After effectively “resetting” to neutral at last week’s lows, funding rates are moving again. The analyst reminds that this can often have unintended consequences, as the price drop begins to unravel many positions and the snowball effect pushes prices further down.
Purges are under review, so the question is which side of the market to run this week? made his comment.
Meanwhile, open interest on Bitcoin futures has yet to surpass all-time highs set before the November 10 drop.
DXY is the star of the show
In macro markets, tensions over coronavirus measures and protests in response to them continue to present a mixed agenda. With inflation already on the radar, the conversation is now turning to the US Federal Reserve. Jason Schenker, president and chief economist at Prestige Economics, comments:
If this idea pops up and is highlighted over and over again, it would increase the likelihood that tapering in December will be more than the pace announced in early November.
However, it was the US dollar that stole the limelight this week. The US dollar index (DXY) beat long-standing resistance this month, reaching its strongest level since July 2020. Typically, the analyst notes that significant DXY gains have had the opposite effect on Bitcoin struggling during these periods.
Analyst Helene Meisler over the weekend, “The problem? In FX land, the emotion is just too extreme,” he warned. A reversal for the unusually volatile DXY would provide a test of inverse correlation with BTC, according to the analyst.
Fear & Greed Index says “wait and see” for crypto market
According to crypto analyst William Suberg, when it comes to the weather in the crypto market, investors prefer to stay on the fence. The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that despite the short-term price behavior, the market is actually completely neutral. At 50/100, Fear & Greed is right in the middle of the range of possible values and highlights an “extreme” lack of emotion. The analyst states that this could move in Bitcoin’s favor as last week’s tremor returns to the “fear” zone where sentiment is now recovering.
According to the data, the contrast and duality of traditional markets with the Fear and Greed Index is clear. The analyst says that “excessive greed” characterized the latter in the previous close and now “greed” still persists.