Ankara Chamber of Industry (ASO) Chairman of the Board of Directors Seyit Ardıç said, “The most important problem of the business world is that it is difficult to access credit,” and added, “The policy rate, which was reduced to 9% in November, is an important step in terms of reaching liquidity, but banks also abstain from funding the market. remains a major problem. The real sector’s opportunities to reach liquidity are decreasing day by day.” Ardıç said, “A policy choice that will ensure realistic and sustainable credit expansion in the future should be put forward.”
ASO President Seyit Ardıç said that the risks that will determine the agenda of the economy in 2022 will continue to be on the agenda this year as well. Expressing that global recession concerns have increased, Seyit Ardıç stated that the growth dynamics have weakened, and that despite all these conditions, the Turkish manufacturing industry has the chance to become Turkey’s global production and technology base after the pandemic.
Saying that the most important problem on the agenda of the business world is access to credit, Seyit Ardıç pointed out that there will be an election this year, the danger of twin deficits will be on the agenda, therefore, compliance with the budget discipline during the election period is more important than ever.
Seyit Ardıç said, “The most important problem of the business world is that it is difficult to access credit. The policy rate, which was reduced to 9% in November, is an important step in reaching liquidity, and despite this, banks’ abstention from funding the market remains an important problem for us. The real sector’s opportunities to reach liquidity are decreasing day by day. In our economy, where there is a high correlation between growth and credit expansion, the difficulty in accessing credit stands as the biggest obstacle to investment and growth. It is necessary to put forward a policy preference that will ensure realistic and sustainable credit expansion in the future.”
Production costs negatively affect growth
Pointing out that the predictability of costs is decreasing day by day in the current conjuncture, Ardıç said, “Especially in the last period, the cost increase in many fields, especially in energy, seriously increases the production costs, while negatively affecting the expectations in the concept of sustainable growth.”
Risks will continue in 2023
The course of the global economy in the coming years; Geopolitical developments such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the extent to which Russia’s policy on gas supply will suppress production in Europe, whether the re-escalating epidemic in China will cause further disruption on the supply side, and whether the real estate crisis in China has spread to the local banking sector, Explaining that it will also depend on a number of factors such as the possibility of causing negative global effects, ASO President Seyit Ardıç continued: “While leaving behind a year with a high risk perception on a global basis, current indicators and expectations indicate that these risks will continue in 2023. Tight monetary policy preferences of Central Banks trying to control inflation are increasing global recession concerns day by day. While the growth dynamics in the global economy weaken in the current and medium term, we are leaving behind a challenging period in terms of both growth and inflation. In their search for an alternative to the China-based production network in the global economy; Our country will come to the fore in the coming years with its industry, competitive prices, qualified workforce, especially its geographical location.”
Ardıç evaluated the developments in the Turkish manufacturing industry with the following words: “The deterioration in the supply chain during the pandemic period and the increase in logistics time and costs, the Turkish manufacturing industry will increase the opportunities in the region we are in. Considering the changing trade networks after the pandemic, continental Europe, especially Turkey, has the potential to be a global production and technology base that can make good use of the opportunities.”
Possible decline in exports
While evaluating the global developments, Ardıç stated that “Both global risks and developments in the domestic market in terms of our country show that the challenging conditions experienced in the previous year will continue in 2023” and said, “A decrease in export volume is likely to occur with the decrease in foreign demand, which is the most important catalyst of growth. The recession concerns in the Euro Zone, our most important trade partner, will negatively affect the export potential. The contribution of domestic demand to growth will be limited in the coming period, since there is a demand that has been brought forward due to high inflation.”
Growth can slow
Ardıç said that while evaluating all these, it should not be overlooked that there is a general election process in front of us, and continued his words as follows: “In this process, it can be expected that the growth will be supported by the public and that the growth will slow down compared to the previous year. One of the important risks in our country will arise in the twin deficit side. It is vital not to stray from budget discipline, especially during the election process. On the current account balance side, the increase in energy prices will be decisive. While there has been a significant increase in net errors and omissions, especially in the last period, it should not be forgotten that this is a sustainable financing source.
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